Singapore key exports hit highest growth rate since 2012 on AI-related demand

SINGAPORE – Singapore’s export engine powered ahead in April despite the Iran war, as key shipments saw their fastest growth since February 2012.

Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) surged 24.5 per cent, well above market expectations of around 11 per cent and the 15.3 per cent growth in March, according to data released by Enterprise Singapore on May 18.

Electronics remained a key growth driver as their exports swelled 66.7 per cent in April, after soaring 73.9 per cent in March. Growth was underpinned by strong demand linked to artificial intelligence.

Shipments of integrated circuits or chips grew 82.7, disk media products by 148.9 per cent and personal computers by 35.7 per cent billion.

Non-electronic NODX expanded 10.9 per cent in April, reversing a 0.6 per cent contraction in March. Growth was led by pharmaceutical shipments which soared 97.1 per cent, as well as specialised machinery (23.6 per cent) and measuring instruments (60.5 per cent).

DBS economist Mr Chua Han Teng noted that the rebound in non-electronics NODX was the first year-on-year increase since end-2025. Economists said part of the strong growth reflected base effects from US tariff disruptions in 2025.

NODX shipments to Singapore’s top 10 markets grew, except to Indonesia which fell 60.8 per cent in April.

Key exports to the United States grew 59.6 per cent due to pharmaceuticals, disk media products and measuring instruments.

Shipments to China expanded by 37.8 per cent, driven by specialised machinery, non-monetary gold and ICs, while those to South Korea climbed 71.2 per cent on ICs, specialised machinery and PCs.

After factoring in a 55.2 per cent year-on-year jump in oil exports and a 29.6 per cent rise in non-oil re-exports, Singapore’s total exports grew 31.8 per cent in April.

Mr Chua said April’s 29.6 per cent rise in non-oil re-exports eased from March’s 60.8 per cent - though growth was still robust He said it will be important to monitor whether the moderation signals the start of a downtrend, as regional trade faces headwinds from input shortages and rising costs linked to Middle East disruptions.

Re-exports of non-oil products like electronics and equipment are an important part of Singapore’s trade activities. Foreign-made imports are exported to other countries without being substantially transformed.

As for NODX, Mr Chua expects key exports to remain supported in the near term, underpinned by electronics. Strong global demand tied to AI, particularly rising investment in data centres and advanced computing, is boosting shipments of memory chips and server-related products, he said.

Recent electronics factory activity readings and capital expenditure guidance from major technology firms suggest the AI-driven upcycle is likely to extend into the second half of the year, he added.

Maybank economist Dr Chua Hak Bin expects Singapore’s economy to remain resilient in 2026. He reckons the Iran war is likely to have a more pronounced impact on inflation than on growth in Singapore.

Rising AI-related investment, safe-haven capital inflows and a sustained construction boom are likely to cushion its economic impact, said Dr Chua.

The Government is also expected to step up fiscal support, including extending targeted measures such as subsidies covering part of diesel and bitumen price increases to support affected sectors, he added.

Dr Chua expects the Ministry of Trade and Industry to maintain its 2026 economic growth forecast at 2 to 4 per cent, or narrow it to a 2.5 to 3.5 per cent range at its next review. Maybank’s own forecast is for growth of around 3.4 per cent.

The AI boom notwithstanding, the outlook for Singapore’s trade-dependent economy remains clouded by the ongoing Iran war, economists said. They expect export growth to moderate in the coming months, with risks skewed to the downside should geopolitical tensions persist or escalate further.

Ms Sheana Yue, senior economist for macroeconomic and investor services at Oxford Economics, said elevated energy and freight costs are likely to dampen trade activity, even as higher oil prices support the value of refined petroleum exports.

While higher crude prices could continue to lift oil export values, volumes may come under pressure from softer demand and the risk of fuel shortages if the conflict drags on, Ms Yue said.

Rising feedstock and shipping costs will also pressure non-oil exports and Singapore’s role as a regional re-export hub, she said.

There are also concerns that prolonged energy disruptions could eventually spill over into semiconductor supply chains, she added.